Greenwood Paper Special Issue

Bulgarian Security Policy: Alternatives and Choice

Tsvetan Tsvetkov
56 pages, ISBN ISBN 90-76301-10-7 (8 1999)

Tsvetan Tsvetkov set out to discover whether the kind of formal methods to aid decision-making (choice) developed by management science might be applicable in the Bulgarian defence arena. Could one find here guidelines for rational selection among policy alternatives? Tsvetkov looks at (a) security policy decision-making; (b) the interests, aspirations and objectives addressed in security policy formulation; (c) the risk assessment required and (d) criteria for choice of a model for Bulgarian security policy. He also presents the results of an interesting survey of expert opinion in Bulgaria on these matters. What the overall analysis reveals, however, is that public choice is quite unlike business decision-making. The application of fashionable techniques for the evaluation of policy options is, therefore, highly problematical and impractical. Professor Tsvetkov has produced a useful insight into what knowledgeable Bulgarians attach importance to but had to conclude that defence policy-making is an art rather than a science; and that the scope for directly applying decision-making theory here is strictly limited.

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Bulgarian Security Policy: Alternatives and Choice

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